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​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Research


To develop and demonstrate a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for use in nuclear plant safety analyses.

Dynamic PRA, like traditional PRA, evaluates risk, likelihood and consequences of accident scenarios. The major difference between dynamic and static PRA is that dynamic PRA can explicitly integrate time and physical phenomena into risk consideration while traditional PRA considers time only implicitly (e.g., via assumptions or success criteria).


Researchers will develop a flexible and comprehensive platform to handle applications of dynamic PRA. The platform will have robust properties and features enabling it to obtain probabilistic results and gather dynamic benefits such as timing and event sequences for specified simulated conditions. Software is developed by using an open standard for communication, which allows for coupling to other PRA (e.g., external hazard modeling), or physics-based (e.g., thermo-hydraulic analysis) software. The two main software tools used for dynamic PRA modeling are EMRALD and RAVEN.

Planned Major Accomplishments​

  • ​Continue research and development of a dynamic PRA in close collaboration with the industry.

  • Expand capabilities of the dynamic PRA tool to address industry needs.


​For more information, contact

Svetlana (Lana) Lawrence
Risk-Informed Systems Analysis, Pathway Lead
Idaho National Laboratory

simulation-based risk.jpg 

Schematic showing the concept of a simulation-based risk assessment of various stages and transitions from stage to stage.