To develop and demonstrate a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for use in nuclear plant safety analyses.
Dynamic PRA, like traditional PRA, evaluates risk, likelihood and consequences of accident scenarios. The major difference between dynamic and static PRA is that dynamic PRA can explicitly integrate time and physical phenomena into risk consideration while traditional PRA considers time only implicitly (e.g., via assumptions or success criteria).
Researchers will develop a flexible and comprehensive platform to handle applications of dynamic PRA. The platform will have robust properties and features enabling it to obtain probabilistic results, and to gather dynamic benefits such as timing and event sequences for specified simulated conditions. Software is developed by using an open standard for communication, which allows for coupling to other PRA (e.g., external hazard modeling), or physics-based (e.g., thermo-hydraulic analysis) software. The two main software tools used for dynamic PRA modeling are EMRALD and RAVEN.
2022—issue an Idaho National Laboratory (INL)-standard software quality assurance plan for EMRALD; develop coupling protocol for communication with SAPHIRE, HUNTER and the RELAP5-3D thermo-hydraulic system-performance tool.
2023—continue research and development of a dynamic PRA in close collaboration with the industry.
Graphic is a schematic of a simulation-based risk assessment.
The concept of a simulation-based risk assessment of various stages and transitions from stage to stage.
The transitions initiated by internal or external factors. The dynamic PRA is able to capture probabilities of system of a given stage or transitioning to another stage. Additional information such as time for a system to be in a given stage is also assessed.