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Skip Navigation LinksDynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Research

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Research


​​Goal

To develop and demonstrate a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for use in nuclear plant safety analyses.

Dynamic PRA, like traditional PRA, evaluates risk, likelihood and consequences of accident scenarios. The major difference between dynamic and static PRA is that dynamic PRA can explicitly integrate time and physical phenomena into risk consideration while traditional PRA considers time only implicitly (e.g., via assumptions or success criteria).


Outcome

Researchers will develop a flexible and comprehensive platform to handle applications of dynamic PRA. The platform will have robust properties and features enabling it to obtain probabilistic results, and to gather dynamic benefits such as timing and event sequences for specified simulated conditions. Software is developed by using an open standard for communication, which allows for coupling to other PRA (e.g., external hazard modeling), or physics-based (e.g., thermo-hydraulic analysis) software. The two main software tools used for dynamic PRA modeling are EMRALD and RAVEN.


Planned Major Accomplishments:​

  • 2022—issue an Idaho National Laboratory (INL)-standard software quality assurance plan for EMRALD; develop coupling protocol for communication with SAPHIRE, HUNTER and the RELAP5-3D thermo-hydraulic system-performance tool.

  • 2023—continue research and development of a dynamic PRA in close collaboration with the industry.


Related Reports​

 

 

Guidance Document for Using Dynamic Force-on- Force Tools, INL/EXT-21-642142213789/8/2021 9:36:04 PMINL/EXT-21-64214 Revision 0 Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Guidance Document for Using Dynamic Force-on-Force Tools September 2021 U.S. Department of Energy Office of 59https://lwrs.inl.gov/RiskInformed Safety Margin Characterization/Forms/AllItems.aspxpdfFalsepdf
Integration of Physical Security Simulation Software Applications in a Dynamic Risk Framework, INL/EXT-21-643332213859/8/2021 5:20:28 PMINL/EXT-21-64333 Revision 0 Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Integration of Physical Security Simulation Software Applications in a Dynamic Risk Framework August 2021 53https://lwrs.inl.gov/RiskInformed Safety Margin Characterization/Forms/AllItems.aspxpdfFalsepdf
Risk-Informed ATF and FLEX Analysis for an Enhanced Resilient BWR Under Design-Basis and Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents, INL/EXT-20-599062052424/13/2021 7:16:42 PMU.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy This information was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the U.S. Government The purpose of the RISA Pathway 32https://lwrs.inl.gov/RiskInformed Safety Margin Characterization/Forms/AllItems.aspxpdfFalsepdf
Assessment of Verification and Validation Status - EMRALD and HUNTER, INL/EXT-20-5990420048412/7/2020 8:33:45 PMU.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy This information was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the U.S. Government Safety is a key parameter to all 236https://lwrs.inl.gov/RiskInformed Safety Margin Characterization/Forms/AllItems.aspxpdfFalsepdf
Methodology and Application of Physical Security Effectiveness Based on Dynamic Force-on-Force Modeling, INL/EXT-20-598912212599/30/2020 9:58:38 PMINL/EXT-20-59891 Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Methodology and Application of Physical Security Effectiveness Based on Dynamic Force-on-Force Modeling September 2020 33https://lwrs.inl.gov/RiskInformed Safety Margin Characterization/Forms/AllItems.aspxpdfFalsepdf
Integration of FLEX Equipment and Operator Actions in Plant Force-On-Force Models with Dynamic Risk Assessment, INL/EXT-20-595102213828/27/2020 1:15:47 AMU.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy This information was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the U.S. Government Labor costs continue to rise in 21https://lwrs.inl.gov/RiskInformed Safety Margin Characterization/Forms/AllItems.aspxpdfFalsepdf
A Simulation Based Dynamic Analysis Approach for Modeling Total Plant Response to Flooding Events, INL/EXT-17-409282214004/29/2022 4:04:31 PMResearch Information Letter Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research This report was prepared as Idaho National Laboratory Report 10https://lwrs.inl.gov/RiskInformed Safety Margin Characterization/Forms/AllItems.aspxpdfFalsepdf

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simulation-based risk.jpg

Graphic is a schematic of a simulation-based risk assessment.​

The concept of a simulation-based risk assessment of various stages and transitions from stage to stage.

The transitions initiated by internal or external factors. The dynamic PRA is able to capture probabilities of system of a given stage or transitioning to another stage. Additional information such as time for a system to be in a given stage is also assessed.