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​​​​​​​​​​​​Risk-Informed Multiphysics Best Estimate Plus Uncertainties


Goal

Uncertainty quantification in modeling and simulation is an important step in increasing confidence in the safety analysis of a nuclear power plant. The goal of this research was to improve the multiphysics uncertainty quantification capabilities of RELAP5-3D, ultimately decreasing over-conservatisms during safety margins assessment. ​

Outcome

The research improved uncertainty analysis capability in RELAP5-3D, the INL best-estimate nuclear thermal-hydraulic computer code, focusing on the reflooding phase of large break loss-of-coolant accident. Relevant closure laws of RELAP5-3D were modified to allow codes user to perturb their main parameters using assigned probabilities distribution functions. Idaho National Laboratory's risk-analysis tool RAVEN, coupled with RELAP5-3D code, were used to demonstrate phase of the research project,​ and applied to the analysis of two reflood experiments. The methodology was widely used in other projects in the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis pathway​. 

​​​Reports​

​For more information, contact

Svetlana (Lana) Lawrence
Risk-Informed Systems Analysis, Pathway Lead
Idaho National Laboratory
Using BEPU  

Concept of safety margins describing the best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) method's benefits. The best-estimated value with an uncertainty range is the closest to the actual value. The benefit is improving the safety margin compared to conservative value.